- One future is if emissions rate continues to grow at pace of the past 30 years for next 50, reaching 14 billion tons of carbon a year in 2056. At that point, a tripling of preindustrial carbon would be difficult to avoid.
- One future is if emissions are frozen at present value of seven billion tons for the next 50 and reduced by half the following 50.
- Difference- one ramps up and one flattens out
- Holding global emissions constant while world economy grows is a daunting task.
- As GWP grew 3% a year on average, carbon emissions rose half as fast. Ratio of emissions to dollars of gross world product (carbon intensity of the global economy) fell about 1.5 percent a year.
- Ending the era of conventional coal fired power plants is at the very top of the decarbonization agenda.
- If business-as-usual trends did lead to the widespread adoption of synfuel, then capturing CO2 at synfuels plants might well produce a wedge.
- Nuclear power is probably the most controversial of all the wedge strategies.
- Of 14 billion tons of carbon emissions projected for 2056, 6 billion will come from producing power
- Residential and commercial buildings account for 60% of global electricity demand today and will consume most of the new power.
- Cutting building's electricity use in half would reduce 1 billion tons of emissions
- Equipping them with superefficient lighting and appliances could reduce 2 billion tons of emissions. Another billion could be reduced if industry finds additional ways to use electricity more efficiently
- Dramatic changes anticipated in fossil-fuel systems including the use of CO2 capture and storage will require institutions that reliably communicate a price for present and future carbon emissions.
- Price needed for jump start is $100-$200 per ton of carbon.
- Price might fall as technologies climb the learning curve
- $100 per ton of carbon is $12 per barrel of oil and $60 per ton of coal
- Governments may need to stimulate the commercialization of low-carbon technologies to increase the number of competitive options available in the future.
- Vigorous effort can prepare revolutionary technologies that will give the second half of the century a running start.
- Options could include scrubbing CO2 directly from air, carbon storage minerals, nuclear fusion, nuclear thermal hydrogen and artificial photosynthesis. One more of the technologies may arrive in time to help the first runner, although the world shouldn't count on it
World's coal, oil and natural gas industries dig up and pump out about seven billion tons of carbon a year, and society burns nearly all of it, releasing CO2. Every increase in concentration carries new risks, but avoiding that danger zone would reduce the likelihood of triggering major, irreversible climate changes like disappearance of the Greenland ice cap. One future is if emissions rate continues to grow at pace of the past 30 years for next 50, reaching 14 billion tons of carbon a year in 2056. At that point, a tripling of preindustrial carbon would be difficult to avoid. Of 14 billion tons of carbon emissions projected for 2056, 6 billion will come from producing power. The world will have a fossil-fuel energy system as large as today's but that is infused with modern controls and advanced materials that is most unrecognizable cleaner.
C: Write a reaction paragraph to the article stating your own thoughts on the topic, using specific citations from the article to support your views
After reading this article I see that holding global emissions constant while world economy grows is a daunting task. To achieve another reduction of CO2, utilities need to equip 800 coal plants to capture and store all CO2 emitted. Renewable energy, geothermal energy can reduce emissions. Dramatic changes anticipated in fossil-fuel systems including the use of CO2 capture and storage will require institutions that reliably communicate a price for present and future carbon emissions. Utilities for instance need to be encouraged to invest in CO2 capture and storage for new coal power plants. We need to get people educated so we can find more ways to reduce CO2 emissions.
So what?:
- New technologies can reduce CO2 emissions
Says who?:
- Robert H. Socolow
- Stephen W. Pacala
What if?...we don't try to reduce CO2 emissions:
- More CO2 in the air
- Pollution
- Acidic ocean
- Warm atmosphere
What does this remind me of?: Trees. We need to find a way to reduce cutting trees down, because trees produce oxygen and without the trees our the world will go downhill.